Italy vs Estonia Prediction & Betting Tips (5 September)

Italy’s upcoming clash with Estonia in the 2026 World Championship qualifiers is more than just a fixture—it’s a litmus test for Gennaro Gattuso’s new-look Azzurri. After taking over from Luciano Spalletti, Gattuso has wasted no time injecting youth and grit into the squad. His first selections included Liverpool’s teenage center-back Giovanni Leoni, Inter’s Francesco Pio Esposito, and Bologna’s Giovanni Fabbian. Italy, currently trailing in Group I after a rocky start, desperately needs momentum. Their recent 2–0 win over Moldova offered a glimpse of cohesion, but the pressure is mounting as they prepare to host Estonia in Bergamo.

Estonia, meanwhile, arrives with quiet confidence and a chip on their shoulder. Under manager Jürgen Henn, the Baltic side has shown flashes of resilience despite a mixed qualifying campaign. They stunned Moldova 3–2 away and nearly held Norway to a draw, only succumbing to a late Erling Haaland strike. Keeper Karl Jakob Hein, currently with Real Valladolid, has been a standout, while midfield dynamo Mattias Käit and striker Rauno Sappinen continue to be the heartbeat of Estonia’s counter-attacking style. Injuries have tested their depth, especially in defense, but the squad remains tactically disciplined and opportunistic.

The tactical battle promises intrigue. Italy will likely dominate possession, leveraging their technical midfield and overlapping fullbacks, while Estonia will sit deep and look to exploit transitions. Gattuso’s aggressive pressing system could leave gaps, and Estonia’s pace on the wings—particularly through Vlasiy Sinyavskiy—might cause problems. However, Italy’s attacking trio, possibly led by Retegui and Esposito, should find enough chances to break through. Expect Italy to control the tempo, but Estonia won’t go quietly, especially with Hein between the posts.

Prediction: Italy 2, Estonia 1. The Azzurri should edge this with superior individual quality and home advantage, but Estonia’s tenacity and recent form suggest they’ll find the net. A late goal from Italy—perhaps via a set piece—could seal it. This match may not be a walkover, but it’s a necessary step for Italy’s redemption arc and Estonia’s growing ambition on the international stage.