Kenya vs Gambia Prediction & Betting Tips (5 September)

The Moi International Sports Centre in Nairobi is set to host a pivotal clash between Kenya and Gambia in the 2026 FIFA World Cup qualifiers. Both sides are navigating the lower rungs of Group F, with Kenya sitting on six points and Gambia trailing with four. The last time these teams met, they delivered a six-goal spectacle in Abidjan, ending 3-3. That match showcased the attacking flair of Musa Barrow and Yankuba Minteh for Gambia, countered by Kenya’s resilience through goals from Michael Olunga, Mohammed Bajaber, and William Wilson. This time, with home advantage and a rejuvenated squad, Kenya will be looking to edge the Scorpions in a tighter affair.

Kenya enters this fixture buoyed by their impressive run in the 2024 African Nations Championship, where they reached the quarterfinals under the guidance of South African coach Benni McCarthy. His tactical overhaul and emphasis on domestic talent have earned widespread praise, with 15 CHAN standouts promoted to the senior squad. Notable inclusions are goalkeeper Byrne Omondi, defenders Sylvester Owino and Alphonce Omija, and midfield dynamo Alpha Onyango. Captain Michael Olunga remains the focal point in attack, supported by rising star Ryan Ogam. McCarthy’s blend of youth and experience has injected belief into a side once considered an outsider in the qualification race.

Gambia, meanwhile, arrives in Nairobi with a squad headlined by Premier League winger Yankuba Minteh and Saudi-based striker Musa Barrow. Coach Jonathan McKinstry, formerly of Gor Mahia, knows the Kenyan football landscape intimately and has warned of the hostile atmosphere awaiting his team. Despite their struggles in the group, the Scorpions have shown flashes of brilliance, including a 5-1 demolition of Seychelles and a spirited showing against Ivory Coast. McKinstry has emphasized the importance of discipline and tactical awareness, especially given Kenya’s newfound grit and home support. The midfield pairing of Ebou Adams and Jesper Ceesay will be key in controlling tempo and limiting Kenya’s transitions.

With both teams desperate to keep their faint World Cup hopes alive, expect a cagey yet spirited contest. Kenya’s tactical maturity and home crowd advantage could tilt the balance, especially with Olunga’s clinical edge and McCarthy’s strategic nous. Gambia’s attacking duo of Barrow and Minteh will pose a constant threat, but defensive lapses have haunted them throughout the campaign. In a match likely to be decided by moments of brilliance and composure under pressure, a 2-1 victory for Kenya feels like the most plausible outcome—one that would not only avenge their earlier draw but also reignite their campaign with renewed optimism.