Mauritania vs Togo Prediction & Betting Tips (5 September)

Mauritania and Togo are set to clash in a pivotal World Championship 2026 qualifier at Nouadhibou Olympic Stadium, with both sides desperate to break their winless streaks. Mauritania, under the guidance of Spanish coach Aritz Lopez Garai, have struggled to find rhythm since parting ways with Amir Abdou last year. Despite a promising Africa Cup of Nations campaign, their qualifying form has been dismal—two points from six matches and a bottom-of-the-group standing. The Lions of Chinguetti have shown flashes of promise, notably in their 2-2 draw against Togo earlier this year, but their inability to convert chances has left them languishing. With home advantage and a renewed sense of urgency, Mauritania will be banking on a breakthrough.

Garai’s squad features key figures like Aboubakary Koita and Abdallahi Mahmoud, both of whom have found the net during this campaign. Koita, in particular, has emerged as a focal point in attack, while Mahmoud anchors the midfield with composure and grit. However, the absence of Mouhsine Bodda due to injury could leave a creative void in the center of the park. Mauritania’s recent friendlies have been underwhelming—draws against Burundi and Algeria, and a loss to the Central African Republic—but the team remains hopeful that their fortunes will shift on home soil. Defensive solidity will be crucial, with Babacar Niasse expected to start in goal and Lamine Ba marshalling the backline.

Togo, meanwhile, arrive in Nouadhibou with four points and a slightly better outlook, though their campaign has also been riddled with missed opportunities. Coach Dare Nibombe has leaned on a pragmatic approach, often favoring defensive resilience over attacking flair. The Sparrowhawks have not played since their 2-0 defeat to Senegal in March, skipping the June window, which raises concerns about match sharpness. Nevertheless, the return of forwards Kevin Denkey and Thibault Klidje—both scorers in the reverse fixture—adds firepower to a side that has struggled to finish games. With goalkeeper Malcolm Barcola unavailable, Youssouf Morou is expected to step in, a move that could test Togo’s defensive depth.

Given the stakes and the historical tendency for tight encounters between these sides, a narrow 2-1 victory for Mauritania seems plausible. The hosts are likely to capitalize on their home advantage and the urgency of their situation, while Togo’s defensive lapses—particularly away from home—could prove costly. Expect Koita to find the net early, with Mahmoud adding a second before Togo respond through Denkey. While both teams are mathematically alive in the qualifiers, this match could mark a turning point for Mauritania, who will be eager to finally translate potential into points.