Uruguay vs Peru Prediction & Betting Tips (5 September)

Uruguay’s march toward the 2026 World Championship has been a tale of grit, reinvention, and tactical evolution under Marcelo Bielsa. The Sky Blue are currently perched in third place in the CONMEBOL standings, having already dispatched heavyweights like Argentina and Brazil earlier in the campaign. Despite a recent dip marked by goalless draws against Paraguay and Venezuela, Uruguay remain the top scorers in South America and boast a defensive record that includes over eight hours of clean sheets in qualifying. With Darwin Núñez cleared to play following a temporary suspension lift, and midfield dynamo Federico Valverde orchestrating play, Uruguay arrive in Lima with a potent mix of youth and experience.

Peru, meanwhile, are navigating stormy waters. Rooted to the bottom of the standings with just seven points from 12 matches, their campaign has been marred by inconsistency and injuries. Jorge Fossati, appointed in late 2023, was recently dismissed after failing to reverse the team’s fortunes, leaving the squad in transition. Key players like Yoshimar Yotún and Renato Tapia remain sidelined, while Gianluca Lapadula and Luis Advíncula are also unavailable. Veteran Horacio Calcaterra has been recalled to stabilize the midfield, but the Blanquirroja’s lack of attacking firepower—just three goals scored in qualifying—continues to haunt them.

Historically, Peru have struggled against Uruguay, failing to win in nine of their last eleven meetings. However, they did manage a surprise 1-0 victory in their most recent clash, courtesy of a late strike from Miguel Araujo. That said, the Estadio Nacional de Lima has not been a fortress this cycle, with Peru losing two of their last three home qualifiers. Uruguay, despite their dominance, have only won once in their last five competitive visits to Lima, suggesting that this fixture could be tighter than the standings imply. The tactical chess match between Bielsa’s high press and Peru’s cautious buildup will be pivotal.

With all factors considered—form, squad depth, and historical trends—a 2-1 win for Uruguay feels like the most plausible outcome. Núñez’s return adds bite to Uruguay’s attack, and Valverde’s control in midfield should tip the balance. Peru may find a moment of brilliance, perhaps through a set piece or a counterattack, but their depleted roster and managerial instability make a comeback unlikely. Expect Uruguay to dominate possession, create more chances, and ultimately edge out a resilient but outmatched Peruvian side.