Benfica vs Qarabag Prediction & Betting Tips (16 September)

Benfica welcome Qarabag to the Estádio da Luz on September 16th for their UEFA Champions League opener, with both sides entering the contest in strong form and high spirits. The Portuguese giants, under the guidance of Bruno Lage, have enjoyed a blistering start to the 2025–26 campaign, winning all eight of their matches across competitions and conceding just once. Their recent 2–1 victory over Alverca showcased the growing influence of new signings Amar Dedić and Andreas Schjelderup, both of whom found the net. Despite a few injury setbacks—Angel Di Maria, Alexander Bah, and Renato Sanches among those sidelined—Benfica’s depth and defensive solidity, anchored by veterans Nicolás Otamendi and Antonio Silva, remain formidable.

Qarabag, led by long-serving manager Qurban Qurbanov, arrive in Lisbon with quiet confidence. The Azerbaijani champions have won five of their last seven matches, including a convincing 2–0 win over Karvan, with goals from Emmanuel Addai and Elvin Yunuszada. Their attacking output has been impressive, averaging two goals per game, while maintaining a respectable defensive record. Oleksiy Kashchuk continues to be a standout performer, having scored consistently in domestic fixtures and European qualifiers. Though Qarabag lack the pedigree of their Portuguese hosts, their tactical discipline and counter-attacking prowess make them a dangerous opponent, especially in transitional moments.

Benfica’s midfield pairing of Richard Ríos and Enzo Barrenechea has emerged as a revelation, combining grit with technical flair. Ríos, in particular, has been a standout performer, dominating the center of the park and contributing to both phases of play. Franjo Ivanović, the Croatian forward, has shown flashes of brilliance and could be pivotal in breaking down Qarabag’s compact defensive lines. With Dedić suspended following a red card, Lage may turn to Obrador or Dahl to fill the void at full-back. The Eagles’ attacking blueprint will likely hinge on width and quick interchanges, aiming to stretch Qarabag’s backline and create space for Pavlidis, who remains their most reliable goal threat.

Expect a tightly contested affair, with Benfica’s home advantage and superior squad depth tipping the scales. Qarabag will not go quietly—they’ve proven their mettle in European qualifiers and possess the tools to trouble Benfica on the break. However, the hosts’ experience and momentum should see them through. A 2–1 scoreline in favor of Benfica feels like a fair reflection of the matchup: a competitive clash with moments of brilliance, but ultimately a narrow win for the Portuguese side as they begin their Champions League journey with purpose.