Almeria vs Castellon Prediction & Betting Tips (26 October)

Almeria enters this fixture with a blend of cautious optimism and tactical refinement. Under the guidance of head coach Gaizka Garitano, the Andalusian side has shown resilience in recent matches, including a hard-fought 2-1 win over Sporting and a narrow 1-0 victory against Las Palmas. Their attacking duo, Adrián Embarba and Leo Baptistão, have been instrumental, each netting two goals in the last three outings. Midfielder Dion Lopy adds depth with his box-to-box energy, while Álex Muñoz has emerged as a key playmaker from the back, contributing two assists. Despite a recent 3-1 loss to Real Oviedo, Almeria remains in the top half of the table, showcasing a balanced mix of youth and experience. The squad’s average age of 26.1 and a market value exceeding €60 million reflect their ambition to return to top-flight football.

Castellon, on the other hand, has been punching above its weight with a squad valued at just €12.88 million. Coach Dick Schreuder has instilled a counter-attacking philosophy that has yielded mixed results. Their recent 3-3 draw against Ceuta and a 3-1 win over Sporting highlight their offensive potential, led by forwards Oussama Camara and Bryan Cipenga, each scoring once in the last three matches. However, defensive frailties remain a concern, especially with Brandariz sidelined due to a hamstring injury and Aurelio doubtful with a cruciate ligament issue. Castellon’s away form has been surprisingly strong, with wins over Leganés and Cornellà, suggesting they won’t be easy prey in Almeria. The team’s cohesion and fighting spirit have earned them respect, even if their league position doesn’t yet reflect their efforts.

Historically, Almeria has had the upper hand in this matchup, winning three of their last five encounters against Castellon. However, Castellon stunned them with a 4-1 victory in April 2025, a result that still lingers in the minds of Almeria supporters. The tactical chess match between Garitano and Schreuder promises to be intense, with both managers known for their adaptability. Almeria’s home advantage at the Power Horse Stadium could be decisive, especially with a passionate crowd expected to fill the stands. Castellon’s ability to absorb pressure and strike on the break will be tested against Almeria’s high pressing and possession-based approach. Injuries on both sides may influence the starting lineups, but the depth of Almeria’s bench could prove crucial in the latter stages of the match.

Given the current form, squad dynamics, and historical context, a tightly contested match is expected. Almeria’s attacking prowess and home advantage should edge them past Castellon, but not without resistance. Castellon’s recent scoring form and tactical discipline suggest they’ll find the net, likely through a swift counter or set-piece. However, Almeria’s superior midfield control and finishing quality should see them clinch the win. Therefore, the most plausible outcome is a 2-1 victory for Almeria—a scoreline that reflects both teams’ strengths and vulnerabilities while honoring the competitive spirit of LaLiga2.