Italy vs Norway Prediction & Betting Tips (16 November)

Italy’s journey toward the 2026 World Cup has been anything but straightforward, with recent months filled with drama and uncertainty. After suffering a heavy 3-0 defeat to Norway in Oslo earlier this year, the Azzurri found themselves under immense pressure to secure qualification. The Italian federation responded by replacing Luciano Spalletti with Gennaro Gattuso, hoping his fiery leadership could reignite the squad. Italy’s recent fixtures have shown mixed fortunes: a 3-1 victory over Israel in Udine gave fans hope, but the team still faces the daunting reality of needing play-off success to reach the tournament. Headlines in October highlighted how Norway’s emphatic 4-1 win against Estonia mathematically blocked Italy from direct qualification, leaving them reliant on results elsewhere. This backdrop sets the stage for a tense showdown in Milan, where Italy will attempt to prove they can still rise to the occasion despite the setbacks.

Norway, on the other hand, has been the revelation of Group I, powered by the unstoppable form of Erling Haaland and Alexander Sørloth. Their campaign has been marked by ruthless efficiency, with Haaland scoring braces and Sørloth adding crucial goals in matches that have kept their 100% record intact. Norway’s 3-0 triumph over Italy in June was a statement of intent, and their subsequent demolition of Estonia further cemented their dominance. Antonio Nusa has also emerged as a rising star, scoring spectacular goals that have caught the attention of fans across Europe. The Norwegian side has combined youthful energy with clinical finishing, making them one of the most feared teams in the qualifiers. Their confidence heading into the clash at San Siro is sky-high, and they will look to silence the Italian crowd with another commanding performance.

The atmosphere surrounding this fixture is electric, with ticket sales for the San Siro match surging as fans anticipate a decisive encounter. Italy’s supporters are desperate to see their team redeem themselves after years of qualification struggles, especially following the heartbreak of missing the 2018 and 2022 World Cups. The Azzurri’s recent win against Moldova offered a glimpse of resilience, but critics argue that their defense remains vulnerable against Norway’s pace and power. Meanwhile, Norway’s fans are relishing the chance to see their team potentially secure top spot in the group, a feat that would underline their transformation from outsiders to genuine contenders. Media coverage has emphasized the clash of styles: Italy’s traditional tactical discipline against Norway’s direct, high-tempo attacking football. This narrative adds layers of intrigue, ensuring the match will be more than just a qualifier—it will be a test of identity and ambition for both nations.

As predictions swirl, the consensus leans toward a high-scoring affair, with Italy determined to restore pride and Norway eager to maintain momentum. Given Italy’s home advantage and their recent improvement under Gattuso, many analysts believe they can finally break Norway’s streak, though not without conceding. Norway’s attacking trio is too potent to be kept quiet, but Italy’s midfield creativity and defensive adjustments should allow them to strike back decisively. The expected outcome is a thrilling contest that ends with Italy prevailing by three goals to one. This 3:1 scoreline reflects Italy’s ability to harness the energy of the San Siro crowd, while acknowledging Norway’s undeniable attacking threat. It would be a result that restores belief in the Azzurri project and reminds the footballing world that Italy, despite recent struggles, remains a force capable of rising to the grandest occasions.