A Quick Guide to Betting on the MLB Postseason

While every sport is unique, baseball has several idiosyncrasies that make it different from other sports. These elements are important for sports bettors to understand, as it will play into betting strategies both for individual games and across a season. Right now, we are heading into the home stretch of the 2024 MLB season, with the postseason looming in October, and the World Series set to be played in November.

For those not accustomed to baseball betting yet who may have an interest, we have created a betting guide on how to navigate the postseason. Starting short of offering betting tips, the guide will provide an insight into the mechanics of the postseason, alongside some further commentary on what you should be looking out for.

Baseball betting: general notes

Several important factors play into baseball betting generally. For a start, it’s worth noting that great teams expect to lose. By that, we mean a team losing one-third of its games across a 162-game regular season is still considered a top team. The starting pitcher is important, with each started rotated in once every four or five games. This will impact individual MLB lines across betting markets, leading to a situation where a bad team (with a good pitcher) is expected to win against a great team with a mediocre one.

Of course, it’s not just as simple as having the best pitcher leading to a win, but the overall message is that baseball is attritional – you want a team to win a series of games, not individual matchups. Additionally, you can bet on other markets like run total and player props, and as with every other sport, stats are your friend here.

Postseason structure

MLB has tinkered with its postseason format several times in recent years, and it’s not a bit complicated, but here’s a breakdown made as simple as possible:

MLB is split into two leagues, the American League and National League. Each league has three divisions made up of five teams: East, West, and Central.

Twelve teams in total will qualify for the postseason. The three division winners from each league are guaranteed their places, alongside three Wild Card spots from each league given to the teams with the best records (regardless of division). Teams are seeded 1-6 in each league based on their record.



Now, here’s where it gets a bit complicated: The two league-winning teams with the best record get a bye into the Divisional Series (AL and NL), and the league-winning team with the third-best record goes into the Wild Card round with the remaining three Wild Card teams. That quartet will play off in two matches to decide the opponents in the Divisional Series.

The winners of the two Divisional Series games will play each other in the Championship Series to decide the champions of the American League and National League respectively. Finally, the American League champions will play the National League champions in the World Series.

Trends and Strategies

On paper, the No.1 seeds are the favorite to win, but it doesn’t always pan out that way. Since the introduction of the Wild Card system in 1995, eight Wild Card teams have won the World Series, including the 2023 champions, the Texas Rangers. You might think of it a bit like a team winning the Champions League when finishing 4th in the Premier League the previous season. Regardless of the comparisons, the important thing to note is that you can find betting value by backing a Wild Card team before the regular season ends. Teams like the Boston Red Sox and Kansas City Royals might fit the bill for some betting value this season.

Indeed, consider this statistic: In 1969 (when the modern postseason system was broadly implemented), only 14 teams with the best regular season record went on to win the World Series. There is always a sense that any of the 12 can win it all, so don’t blindly back the favorite. The trend is your friend, and you might want to look at teams with momentum going into the postseason.

Aces, injuries, and clutch players

Baseball is a team sport requiring deep rosters for success. You might, for example, have the best starting pitchers and hitters in the league, only to be let down by a weak bullpen (relief pitchers). That said, the postseason is a time for individuals to stand up. Players like Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani, Zack Wheeler, Corbin Burns, and Bobby Witt will be looking to be the difference-makers for their teams in the 2024 postseason.

Injuries and fatigue can play a huge role in determining success naturally. Backing teams with players coming back from injury late in the season – the Arizona Diamondbacks spring to mind this year – can be a double-edged sword. Yes, elite players can make a difference, but they may also lack the battle sharpness acquired across a season.

Final Words

The MLB postseason is often regarded as something of a lottery. As we said, it’s got a poor record of delivering World Series victories to the teams with the best records compared to other sports. Yet, there is also a science in the betting. Look for teams with depth, momentum, and difference-makers, and then combine that with other factors like their records when playing on the road versus home (higher seeds get an extra game at home during a series). A good rule of thumb is to split a pitcher or batter’s stats and look at them before and after the All-Star Break, which will show you who is hot coming into the postseason.

While, as mentioned, the postseason can punish the favorites, it’s worth noting that it works the other way in terms of betting value. It’s not uncommon to find a World Series-winning team going into the final weeks of the regular season with odds of 50/1 or above. By all means, the heavily fancied Dodgers, Yankees, or Phillies might go all the way this year, but there is value available in the markets for those taking a punt on an outsider.