Lithuania vs Poland Prediction & Betting Tips (12 October)

Poland and Lithuania meet in a pivotal World Cup 2026 qualifier, with both teams eager to shake off recent disappointments and ignite their campaigns.

Poland enters this clash under pressure, having endured a rough patch marked by five winless matches, including a 2-1 defeat to Scotland and a heavy 5-1 loss to Portugal. Head coach Michal Probierz is banking on a fresh start, and the return of Robert Lewandowski offers a glimmer of hope. The Barcelona striker remains the heartbeat of the Polish attack, supported by midfielders Sebastian Szymanski, Jakub Moder, and Bartosz Slisz. Defensive frailties persist, with Poland conceding 13 goals in their last four outings, but the expected backline of Matty Cash, Jan Bednarek, and Jakub Kiwior could offer some stability.

Lithuania, meanwhile, arrives in Warsaw with a record that’s equally troubling. Edgaras Jankauskas’s side has lost six consecutive matches, including a 1-0 defeat to Kosovo despite a second-half numerical advantage. Their defensive record is alarming, having conceded 16 goals in their last six World Cup qualifiers. The team has only managed four wins in their last 29 matches, and their last encounter with Poland ended in a 4-0 drubbing back in 2018. Still, Lithuania has shown flashes of resilience on the road, winning two of their last five away games, which could fuel their belief heading into this fixture.

The matchup promises tension and urgency, with Poland desperate to reassert dominance and Lithuania hoping to defy expectations. While history and form lean heavily in favor of the hosts, the unpredictable nature of qualifiers often breeds surprises. That said, our prediction leans toward a narrow Polish victory, with the final scoreline reading 2-1 in favor of Poland. Expect Lewandowski to find the net, but Lithuania may snatch a goal through a set-piece or counterattack, keeping the contest competitive until the final whistle.