Where Football Predictions Stop and Luck Takes Over

A football prediction is an educated guess using past data on a football club, a player, or a certain news event.

Good predictions use clear data. Bad ones, on the other hand, don’t. This is where football predictions stop being good guesses and turn completely into luck.

The difference matters a lot. A prediction has a basis, a story in which data support it. When luck takes over, however, it’s no longer a prediction; it’s simply a random guess.

What a Football Prediction Is Built On

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What's great about football predictions is that every player, match, and club leaves a paper trail behind it.

Before kick-off, someone who wants to make a football prediction can dive into the numbers, for example, home and away results, rest days, injuries, suspensions, and the price the bookmaker is offering.

All of these data points mean nothing individually. Together, though, a tipster's prediction can start creating a picture, enabling them to make an educated guess on what may or may not happen.

Where the Prediction Runs Out

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Predictions are “maybes” at best, as even a well-researched prediction can’t account for unpredictable circumstances.

With football, a bad challenge and a red card in the first five minutes isn’t predictable. A deflection off a shin resulting in an own goal cannot be found in past data. A goalkeeper having the game of his life is difficult to research beforehand.

Stat Perform, the company behind Opta, makes a similar point about expected goals. A team with the higher xG in a match doesn’t necessarily deserve to win. xG measures the quality of the chances, not the end result.

Because of this, there are always limits when it comes to predictions. Situations that cannot be researched can occur during a live match, resulting in the guess being wrong, regardless of how well-researched it is.

When to Trust a Prediction

Before trusting a prediction from a tipster, it’s a good idea to ask yourself two questions.

First, “What is the prediction built on?” If the prediction is only built on a handful of home and away games, an injury, or just how the bookmaker is pricing the bet, then there might not be enough research to back up the reasoning.

Second is “When does the prediction become invalid?” At one point, the prediction should become invalid if something happens or doesn’t happen within a certain period of time. For instance, if someone gets injured, if form changes, etc.

There are a million and one questions to ask. By narrowing it down to two, it’s easier to identify the legitimacy of the prediction and understand whether you should trust it or not.

Games With Nothing to Predict

When it comes to football, predictions are possible because of the data each game leaves behind. However, when a game has no past data and is completely random, it cannot be predicted, regardless of the approach.

A lottery draw, for example, is completely random and independent each time it’s drawn. Whatever numbers were pulled from the last draw cannot be used to predict the outcome of the next draw.

Online bingo is a clear example of this. Every number is drawn at random. In Britain, the Gambling Commission’s technical standards require that outcomes are “computationally infeasible to predict”, or, in other words, they need to be completely random.

As a result, the only tips that mean anything for a bingo online UK player are about the format itself. For instance, a 90-ball bingo game is slower, and a 75-ball bingo room is faster. Any other mysterious prediction method is completely false.

One Rule for Both

Whether a game leaves data behind or not, the same question applies before trusting any tip. “What is it built on?”

If the answer is a run of recent results, home and away form, or a sensible price, the prediction has something to stand on. If the answer is nothing, because every outcome is drawn fresh, then there’s nothing to predict, and no tip can change that.

A good tipster backs their predictions with data. A bad one guesses. Whoever you listen to should use data that can be verified, enabling you to trust their guesses.