US Open 2025 Outrights: Men’s and Women’s Favorites to Watch

The US Open 2025 has moved into its defining phase with the quarterfinals shaping both men’s and women’s draws. Players have battled through demanding matches to reach this stage, and outright markets now show a narrowing field.

Fans and analysts are focusing on a small group of players who dominate the odds and appear poised for deep runs. With every serve and rally under scrutiny, momentum is dictating outright prices more sharply than before. Sinner, Alcaraz, Świątek, and Sabalenka lead their respective races, while outsiders like Djokovic and Osaka keep the market unpredictable.

This event reflects the tension of experience meeting rising talent, and the outright discussion has rarely been as vivid. As of September 3, 2025, the favorite picture is becoming clearer yet remains vulnerable to sudden change.

Leading Men’s Contenders at Flushing Meadows

The men’s outright race has narrowed to a few key names, with a clear gap between the leading favorites and the longshot challengers. Each remaining player brings distinct strengths, and their odds reflect both consistency and recent form.

For many bettors and analysts, the US Open outrights now hinge on whether Jannik Sinner can continue his dominance or if Carlos Alcaraz will rise to the challenge.

Jannik Sinner Stands as Clear Favorite

Jannik Sinner has established himself as the primary force in the men’s outright conversation. His odds are consistently short, hovering near –138, reflecting both form and status as defending champion.

Entering the quarterfinals against Lorenzo Musetti, he carries a commanding hard-court winning streak that shows no signs of faltering. Bookmakers rate him as the strongest candidate, with a style built on precision and consistency from the baseline. His calm under pressure continues to separate him from his peers in these stages.

Carlos Alcaraz Remains Close Behind

Carlos Alcaraz follows closely, with odds around +110 to +145 depending on the market. The Spaniard thrives in high-energy contests, blending athleticism and creativity.

He has handled his earlier rounds convincingly, reinforcing his place as a leading candidate for the title. His ability to shift momentum quickly in matches makes him a constant danger, especially on the hard courts of New York. He remains the most likely rival to challenge Sinner in the final rounds.

Novak Djokovic Still Holds Presence

Novak Djokovic enters the picture with less outright weight than in previous years. His odds stand between +900 and +1200, making him a distant option compared to the top two.

Despite that, his presence in the quarterfinals at age 38 is significant. He has become the oldest player since 1991 to reach this stage at the US Open. His experience and composure remain strengths, though the markets reflect the challenge of maintaining dominance against younger opponents.

Women’s Favorites in the Spotlight

The women’s outright picture highlights two dominant figures at the top, supported by a mix of outsiders with potential to disrupt the draw. Odds show a sharp divide, yet the depth of talent keeps the conversation open.

Coverage across the latest tennis news outlets has emphasized the rivalry between Iga Świątek and Aryna Sabalenka, framing it as the defining storyline of this year’s US Open.

Aryna Sabalenka Defending Her Crown

Aryna Sabalenka, defending champion at the US Open, tops the odds boards at +135. Her brand of aggressive first-strike tennis has carried her deep once more.

Facing Jessica Pegula in the semifinals, Sabalenka holds the edge both in form and outright market confidence. She remains one of the few capable of halting Świątek’s march. Her performance this week may determine whether she can repeat her success and cement her place in history.

Iga Świątek Holds Top Position

Iga Świątek commands attention in the women’s outright picture, her odds trailing only slightly at +190. She brings the weight of a Wimbledon title and strong form into New York, where she continues to dictate play with power and patience.

Her quarterfinal matchup against Amanda Anisimova offers a chance to confirm her status. Markets and analysts align on her position as a frontrunner, built on proven consistency throughout the season.

Naomi Osaka Emerges as Outsider

Naomi Osaka is a notable outsider with odds around +400 to +500. Her return to major contention has been a storyline of this tournament. She faces Karolína Muchová in a key quarterfinal that could significantly boost her outright price if she is successful.

Osaka’s combination of experience and renewed confidence makes her an attractive pick outside the main favorites. The markets show cautious optimism but reflect the uncertainty of a comeback campaign.

Quarterfinal and Semifinal Matchups Driving the Odds

The matches leading up to the final are giving sharper definition to outright markets. In the men’s draw, Sinner meets Musetti in an all-Italian contest, while Djokovic beat Fritz in the quarterfinal to set up a clash with Alcaraz next. These matches hold potential to shift odds if the favorites falter. Alcaraz remains on course, and his anticipated final clash with Sinner drives speculation of a classic encounter.

On the women’s side, Świątek’s clash with Anisimova revisits their Wimbledon meeting, which Świątek controlled. Sabalenka against Pegula offers another high-stakes match, while Osaka and Muchová round out the quarterfinal lineup. Each match presents outright implications as momentum can swing quickly at this stage.

Analysts categorize Sinner and Alcaraz as the defining names in men’s betting, with Djokovic as a respected but secondary figure. In the women’s bracket, Świątek and Sabalenka dominate the conversation, while Osaka provides intrigue as a potential disruptor. Pegula and Anisimova remain key factors whose performances could alter the outright board.

Current Shape of the US Open Outrights

The outright markets of September 3 paint a tournament with sharp contrasts. At the top, Sinner and Świątek command strong positions, built on dominance and results. Alcaraz and Sabalenka chase closely behind, both viewed as capable of lifting the trophy. Djokovic and Osaka represent veteran and comeback narratives, offering markets depth beyond the favorites.