World Cup 2026: Betting Favorites, Winning Odds, and Dark Horses to Watch

The 48-team World Cup is finally on after a 16-year wait for Siphiwe Tshabalala's opener at the first World Cup held in Africa. Now, exactly the same two teams — Mexico and South Africa — will face off this time on the big stage of the Estadio Azteca on Thursday, June 11. The clock ticks from the opening minute as the largest World Cup in history kicks off for the first time. 48 teams, 104 matches, 16 different venues, spanning the United States, Mexico and Canada, leading up to a final July 19 at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey.

It's only 5 1/2 weeks long, divided into 12 pools, with a new, expanded round of 32. It seems like every bookie can't agree on who takes the gold in this one.

Here is our latest World Cup breakdown, where we stand at the start of tournament action.

How World Cup 2026 starts

The Estadio Azteca is the first stadium to hold the tournament in its history, having hosted two finals to date. It's getting the opening night honors at 3 p.m. ET before South Korea vs. Czechia on Saturday evening in Guadalajara. The other two co-hosts on June 12: Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina in Toronto; the United States get going at SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles.

The expanded tournament format can take some getting used to as 12 pool groups of four play out through June 27, with the top two from each group plus eight of the third-place teams progressing to a new, first-ever round of 32, starting June 28. The quarterfinals begin July 8; semifinals in Dallas and Atlanta on July 14 and 15 and it's down to New Jersey to see the winner crowned with world cup tickets becoming one of the hottest commodities across all sports. 

More teams, more games, more travel and more heat — remember that last part.

Who is favored to win in 2026?

Spain and France have been swapping places as the betting favorite at the beginning of every World Cup since they started, but here they are again. BetMGM has the defending champions, Spain, listed at 11/2 ( +450 ) as the favorite, followed by France at 4/1 ( +500 ), England at 6/1 ( +700 ), Brazil at 8/1 ( +800 ), Portugal and Argentina both coming in at 9/1 ( +900 ), then Germany at 14/1 and the Netherlands hovering between 16/1 and 22/1.

It's a no-brainer in Spain's case, as they are arguably playing the best football in the field while still defending their crown in Europe. However, it's the other end of the equation where the price is most likely to move with the latest report of Lamine Yamal's left leg woes. The 18-year-old, who's already considered a top contender for World Cup 2026's Young Player of the Tournament Award, is bearing much of that favorite's load.

France, in turn, have the most depth at the squad level. England have a seemingly weaker group and have a roster built for tournament success. Portugal is getting a lot of money on the final act of the career of Cristiano Ronaldo to end as he began: the only thing he's missing from his trophy case. Argentina isn't trusted with the repeat; no nation has successfully defended the World Cup title since Brazil in 1962, but the biggest crowd of all, the United States, have a price at 60/1 that's been maintained, despite plenty of heavy action in their favor from local bookmakers.

Keep this number for the end of the tournament in your pocket. From 1966 to 2022, the pre-tournament favorite won only three of 15 World Cups. Markets know their way around a ranking, but when it comes to predicting the mayhem of a 48-team global spectacle, they are woefully inadequate. A North American summer campaign is a recipe for chaos.

Here are the outsiders you can't ignore:

Dark Horses

Norway (+3300 to +4000) None of the top-seeds were rattled on selection day the way Norway were. This Norwegian team hasn't competed in a World Cup since the 1998 edition in France, and their path to 25 was brutal: they dominated qualifying and claimed two victories over Italy. The headline is Haaland, but the engine is Ødegaard, who operates with real creative freedom supported by attacking options Sørloth and Nusa. The draw was a doozy: France and Senegal are in Group I. Yet, should the Norwegians escape that gauntlet unscathed, there isn't a better seed to fear in the knockout rounds. The wildcard? It is the first World Cup for a squad with zero prior tournament experience, and even the Iraqi manager acknowledged that Scandinavian players struggle with 90-degree days.

Colombia (+3500 to +4000) Luis Diaz just enjoyed a career season of 26 goals and 19 assists in his first year in Germany as Bayern clinched the 2025 Bundesliga title. Then there is James Rodríguez: 35 years old in July but still in the mindset of being the man to save his country in this World Cup. In reality, James no longer shoulders this burden. Lorenzo is the coach and his philosophy involves intense pressing, solid defense, and a potent offense. Group K includes Portugal, Uzbekistan and the DR Congo and is very winnable; the match versus Portugal on June 27 should decide the top spot. The other detail to keep in mind: historically, South American teams fare better in hot, humid summer events.

Morocco (+5000) It would be rude to call the 2022 semifinalists a dark horse, but that is what they are. There is a question mark in the back: Regragui left the program in March, and his replacement is Mohamed Ouahbi. The latter was the coach of the Under-20 national team when they won the 2025 FIFA U-20 World Cup by beating the final opponent, Argentina. There isn't a structural change to the Moroccan system. Morocco were crowned champions of the AFCON this year, the lowest average goal allowance (five) and the most goals coming from set-plays (four). Hakimi stars, Brahim Díaz makes them creative, and their defense is impenetrable. Group C will have Brazil, Scotland and Haiti and it is a brutal group, but there is a chance they beat the favorites here.

Japan (+4500) Another quietly good team for a World Cup. Japan eliminated Brazil at the 2025 Nations League Final, and they qualified as one of the earliest teams from the Asia, now hoping to reach their first-ever quarterfinal in a World Cup. They're deep, highly organized, and perfectly content with people thinking little of them: several seasoned analysts consider them the highest upside non-favorite in this World Cup.

The Final Word

Favorites win the argument; winners win in June. Travel will be long this year. The field will be crowded. There will be an extra knockout-round in the format. That all combines to make this World Cup the highest-variance edition to date. Spain gets a nod as the favorite; France has the deepest roster on paper. But it's happened before, and it's likely to happen again: the market front-runner doesn't finish the tournament with the trophy. So check out Norway's group of death. Keep an eye out for Colombia beating Portugal. Don't miss when Morocco packs.

Kickoff arrives at the Azteca on Thursday. Thirty-nine days from now, someone in New Jersey will have their whole world turn.