Real Sociedad vs Ath Bilbao Prediction & Betting Tips (4 March)

Real Sociedad welcome Athletic Club to San Sebastián for a Copa del Rey semifinal second leg that feels like a culmination of several seasons’ work. The tie is finely balanced after Real Sociedad’s away win at San Mamés, where Beñat Turrientes decided the first leg with a close-range strike in a tense 1-0 victory. That result, coming in mid-February, extended La Real’s run of three consecutive Copa semifinals and underlined their growing maturity in knockout football. With the return leg now set for early March, the narrative is clear: Athletic must overturn a narrow deficit, while Real Sociedad are ninety minutes away from their first Copa final since lifting the trophy in 2019-20.

Recent weeks have been demanding for Real Sociedad, but they have also sharpened the team’s competitive edge. A home fixture against Oviedo on 21 February 2026, referenced in the preview at /predictions/2026-02-21/Real-Sociedad-vs-Oviedo-prediction, followed quickly after a high-profile league clash away to Real Madrid on 14 February 2026, covered in /predictions/2026-02-14/Real-Madrid-vs-Real-Sociedad-prediction. Sandwiched between those dates was the Copa first leg at San Mamés, where that crucial 1-0 win gave them a precious advantage. The schedule has tested their depth, but it has also allowed key players to find rhythm at exactly the right moment in the season.

Athletic Club, meanwhile, arrive in San Sebastián knowing that their recent run of fixtures has been equally intense and emotionally charged. In the league, they faced Elche on 20 February 2026, a matchup previewed at /predictions/2026-02-20/Ath-Bilbao-vs-Elche-prediction, shortly after a trip to Oviedo on 15 February 2026, highlighted in /predictions/2026-02-15/Oviedo-vs-Ath-Bilbao-prediction. Yet the fixture that still lingers most is the Copa first leg against Real Sociedad, detailed again at /predictions/2026-02-11/Ath-Bilbao-vs-Real-Sociedad-prediction, where they slipped to that narrow 1-0 defeat. That result forces Athletic to be bold in the return leg, pushing higher and taking more risks than they might usually accept away from home.

All of this recent context—Real Sociedad’s steady progression in the Copa, their demanding February schedule, and Athletic’s need to chase the tie—shapes the outlook for this second leg. With La Real defending a slim lead and playing in front of their own supporters, the match could tilt toward a controlled, territorial performance from the hosts, while Athletic are compelled to open up and search for goals. That dynamic often suits a side like Real Sociedad, who can exploit spaces when opponents commit bodies forward. Taking into account form, confidence from the first leg, and the aggregate situation, a realistic and coherent prediction for this Copa del Rey clash is a 2-0 correct score in favour of Real Socie