Ajax vs Willem II Prediction & Betting Tips (15 September)

Ajax host Willem II at the Johan Cruijff ArenA on Tuesday, 15 September 2026 (18:00 UTC) in a VriendenLoterij Eredivisie Round 5 clash that pits a title-chasing giant against a side stuck in the relegation zone. Míchel's Ajax sit 5th with 7 points from four matches, while Willem II are 17th with just a single point and a -9 goal difference. The Amsterdammers are in strong attacking form, having scored 16 goals in their last five outings, including a 0-4 away rout of Telstar and a controlled 0-2 win at PEC Zwolle on the opening day. Willem II, by contrast, have conceded 3.33 goals per game this season, with heavy defeats such as the 0-3 home loss to Excelsior and the 1-4 thrashing by NEC Nijmegen exposing serious defensive frailties.

For the 2026/2027 season, Ajax have assembled an experienced squad built around goalkeeper Marc ter Stegen, a back line of Anton Gaaei, Aaron Bouwman, Youri Baas and Caio Henrique, a midfield featuring captain Davy Klaassen, Jorthy Mokio and Julian Brandt, and an attack led by Steven Berghuis, Tolu Arokodare and Oscar Gloukh, with quality depth in Kasper Dolberg, Marcos Leonardo, Viktor Tsygankov, Owen Wijndal, Thilo Kehrer and Sofyan Amrabat. The hosts are without Simon Adingra, Rayane Bounida and Daley Blind through injury. Willem II's 2026/27 squad is built around Wouter van der Steen, Kyan de Leeuw, Jesper Mathijsen, Alessandro Ciranni, Amine Et-Taibi, Milan Dekker, Tonny Vilhena, Thomas Verheydt, Chido Obi-Martin and Patrick van Loon, but they travel without Armin Culum, Thomas Didillon-Hödl, Anass Zarrouk, Jari Schuurman and Amine Lachkar — a depleted group that will struggle to contain Ajax's firepower.

The head-to-head history heavily favours the home side: Ajax have won 19 of the last 23 meetings between the clubs, with two draws and just two Willem II victories, and the Amsterdammers are unbeaten in the last six encounters (5 wins, 1 draw). Ajax also kept the most clean sheets in the Eredivisie so far this season, while Willem II have managed only five goals in their last five matches. The European odds reflect this gulf in class, with Ajax priced as overwhelming favourites at 1.18 for the home win, the draw at 7.85, and an away win for Willem II at 17.00. Over 2.5 goals is offered at 1.33 and both teams to score at 1.95, underlining the expectation of a one-sided, high-scoring contest at the Johan Cruijff ArenA.

Our prediction for this Eredivisie encounter is a convincing 4-1 home victory for Ajax. Míchel's side have averaged nearly three goals per game in the early weeks of the 2026/27 campaign, while Willem II have shipped 14 goals in their first four league matches and arrive in Amsterdam with a lengthy injury list and almost no momentum. Berghuis and Gloukh should find space between the lines against a visiting defence that has failed to keep a single clean sheet, and even with Ajax missing Adingra, Bounida and Blind, the sheer depth of the hosts' squad — with Dolberg, Marcos Leonardo and Tsygankov ready off the bench — should prove far too much for the relegation-battling visitors. Expect Ajax to dominate possession, press Willem II into errors, and secure a comfortable three points to keep pace with the Eredivisie lead