Hajduk Split vs Ajax Prediction & Betting Tips (15 October)

Hajduk Split host Ajax at Stadion Poljud on Thursday, 15 October 2026, as the 2026/27 UEFA Conference League league phase kicks off in one of the most atmospheric venues in European football. The match marks a landmark occasion for the Croatians, who end a wait of more than 15 years for a major European group-stage or league-phase fixture, having last featured at this stage of a UEFA competition in the 2010/11 Europa League. Hajduk arrive in superb shape after Saturday's 2-1 Eternal Derby win over Dinamo Zagreb, unbeaten in all nine home matches this term (W7, D2), and having lost just one of their last 13 competitive fixtures (W10, D2). Ajax, four-time European champions, booked their place in the league phase by dismantling FC Sion 9-5 on aggregate in the play-offs and begin their campaign in Split before welcoming Atalanta to Amsterdam a week later.

The visitors come into this fixture with a devastating attacking rhythm, having scored in all 14 of their competitive matches this season at an average of more than three goals per game. Their most recent outings underline that firepower: a 1-5 demolition of Fortuna Sittard on the road, followed by a 5-1 rout of Willem II at the Johan Cruijff ArenA, both in September's Eredivisie action. Ajax are unbeaten in competitive away fixtures this term (W5, D1), scoring at least twice in all six of those outings, and have won their last two major European away games. Hajduk's European pedigree at home is notable, though — they are yet to concede against Ajax at Stadion Poljud in two previous meetings (W1, D1), and none of the four all-time H2H clashes have seen both teams score.

Turning to the 2026/27 squads, Míchel Sánchez has assembled an Ajax roster blending experience and youth: Marc-André ter Stegen in goal; Anton Gaaei, Thilo Kehrer, Youri Baas and Caio Henrique across the back; Davy Klaassen captaining the midfield alongside Sofyan Amrabat and Julian Brandt, with Oscar Gloukh — who has netted in each of his last three major European appearances — pulling the strings behind striker Tolu Arokodare. Steven Berghuis, Kasper Dolberg, Viktor Tsyhankov, Oliver Edvardsen and Marcos Leonardo provide further attacking depth, though Dolberg misses out following knee surgery and Simon Adingra is a doubt. Hajduk's hopes rest heavily on Michele Šego, who has scored ten goals in 17 appearances this season, six of them in Europe, while Roko Brajković and goalkeeper Ivica Ivušić are fitness concerns after sitting out the Dinamo win.

In the European (decimal) 1X2 odds market, Ajax start as clear favourites at around 1.75, with the draw priced near 3.90 and a Hajduk home win at roughly 4.33. Those numbers reflect the Dutch side's relentless scoring form on the road, yet they may slightly undervalue a Hajduk team that is unbeaten at home and fighting in front of a sold-out, fervent Poljud crowd for the first time in a major European night in over a decade. With seven of Ajax's last eight European away outings producing over 3.5 goals, goals look guaranteed — but the visitors' superior squad depth, European experience and attacking rhythm should ultimately tell. Our prediction: Hajduk Split 1-3 Ajax