Thun vs Hajduk Split Prediction & Betting Tips (22 October)

FC Thun host HNK Hajduk Split at Stockhorn Arena on 22 October 2026 in a UEFA Conference League league-phase match that already feels pivotal after both clubs opened with opposite results. Thun’s return to Europe has been bumpy: they were beaten 1-0 at Twente after Patrik Kristal’s red card, while Hajduk produced the statement result of matchday one by beating Ajax 2-1 in Split. A large Hajduk following is expected in Thun, and the Swiss side must rediscover the away efficiency they showed when their trip to Luzern finished 1-3.

The 2026/2027 squads tell contrasting stories. Thun’s rebuild after their Swiss title has left coach Luca Privitelli Gian relying on Niklas Steffen, Jan Bamert, Fabio Fehr, Nicolas Bürgy, Justin Roth, Nils Reichmuth, Nassim Zoukit, Brighton Labeau and Furkan Dursun, with summer additions Riccardo Braschi, Tom Strannegård, Noah Christoffersson, Patrik Kristal, Olivier Mambwa and Louis Passavant adding depth. Hajduk’s core is more settled: Toni Silic; Mathieu Acapandié, Ron Raçi, Dario Marešić, Šimun Hrgović; Alberto del Moral, Khalil Fayad; Abdoulie Sanyang, Marko Livaja, Michele Šego and Marin Šotiček, with Leander Dendoncker and Carlos Martín among the high-profile 2026 arrivals. Roko Brajković remains the key confirmed absentee for Hajduk, while Mambwa is Thun’s main late fitness check after going off injured at Twente.

European odds make Hajduk narrow favourites at about 2.45 for the away win, with Thun 2.75 and the draw 3.40; over 2.5 goals is priced around 1.65 and both teams to score around 1.53, so the market expects an open game. That fits Thun’s 4-4-2: Labeau and Dursun can stretch centre-backs, but the midfield must protect a back line that has faced heavy pressure in Europe. Hajduk’s shape is fluid, often starting with Šego near Livaja and Sanyang providing vertical runs; if Del Moral and Fayad control the second balls, Thun’s full-backs will be pinned back.

Our prediction is 2 : 2. Thun’s home crowd, direct transitions and set-piece threat give them a route to score twice, but Hajduk’s greater continuity in attack and the confidence from beating Ajax should be enough to avoid defeat. Expect a cautious tactical battle early, a more stretched second half as Thun chase the game, and a draw that leaves both teams still competitive in the Conference League league ph