Burton vs Notts County Prediction & Betting Tips (10 November)

Burton Albion host Notts County at the Pirelli Stadium on Tuesday 10 November 2026 (19:00 GMT, live on Sky Sports+) in a winner-takes-top-spot showdown in EFL Trophy Northern Group F. Martin Paterson's Magpies have already punched their ticket to Round 2 after perfect group-stage wins over Grimsby Town (2-1) and Nottingham Forest U21 (5-1), while Gary Bowyer's Brewers have scraped together three points from two penalty-shootout epics — a 3-4 defeat from the spot after a 1-1 draw with Forest U21 and a 4-2 shootout triumph after a goalless night at Grimsby. That means the maths is simple: a Burton victory in 90 minutes levels both clubs on six points and hands the Brewers top spot on the head-to-head, while a draw or a Notts win sends the visitors through as group winners. The subplot is delicious, because these two League One rivals already met at Meadow Lane on 29 August, when Lucas Smyth struck twice in the final 13 minutes — the second from the penalty spot — to turn Finn Delap's 22nd-minute opener into a 2-1 Notts County win, a match that also saw Curtis Tilt sent off late on. County's recent dominance in this fixture is stark: they are unbeaten in the last five meetings with four wins and an aggregate score of 10-4, so Bowyer — who lifted this very trophy as a player with Rotherham in 1995-96 — knows his side must finally land a psychological blow against a club managed by a man who once sat in the Burton dugout himself, Paterson having taken charge of the Brewers in early 2024 before returning to Nottingham.

Burton arrive with their 2026/27 squad taking shape under Bowyer, built around goalkeeper Corey Addai and a settled back three of Toby Sibbick, Finn Delap — who put pen to paper on a new contract running to 2029 in mid-October — and captain Curtis Tilt, with Jack Armer and Kyran Lofthouse offering width from wing-back and the engine room shared by Kegs Chauke, George Evans, Sulyman Krubally and Charlie Webster. The headline team news is the poacher-turned-plot-twist: Matthew Dennis swapped Meadow Lane for the Pirelli on 4 July 2026 and already has a habit of rising against elite opposition, having scored the opener in Burton's famous 2-1 win at Leicester City in August, so the 19-year-old facing his former employers for the first time is the tastiest angle of the night. Mark O'Mahony, Caylan Vickers and Gbemi Arubi complete a youthful attacking unit, with Emeka Adiele and Zac Scutt — both on target in the Trophy campaign — pushing for starts. Burton's league form has wobbled of late, with just one win in their last five League One outings including a 3-0 defeat at Adams Park back in February that still stings, though there have been brighter recent signs such as the battling 2-2 draw at Peterborough in October where Webster and Arubi both scored, and Bowyer will hope the cup environment — where his young side has already shown shootout steel — frees them up to attack.

Notts County, promoted back to League One via the 2026 play-off final, have assembled one of the most loan-fuelled squads in the division for 2026/27: James Belshaw or Aidan Griffiths in goal; a back line featuring Chelsea loanee Ishe Samuels-Smith, Newcastle's Rory Finneran, Lucas Ness, Jacob Bedeau, Kyle Baker and the ever-dangerous Nicholas Tsaroulla; a midfield of Scott Robertson, Dean Campbell, Matthew Palmer and Ollie Cooper (on loan from Swansea); and a front line where Luka Smyth — the two-goal hero of August — pairs with Charlton loanee Daniel Kanu, supported by Conor Grant, Callum Roberts and Lewis Ndlovu. Paterson's men come in off a landmark result, a 2-0 win at Mansfield on 31 October — their first League One away victory of the season, sealed by Roberts' long-range stunner and Kanu's composed finish — which followed a resilient 1-1 home draw with leaders Stockport County, where Robertson's early opener was cancelledled only late on, and an emphatic 2-0 triumph over Sheffield Wednesday. The one piece of business news to note is Maz Kouhyar's loan to Kidderminster until January, thinning Paterson's wide options. With County already safely through and only 72 hours after a bruising FA Cup trip to Altrincham on Saturday, plus a congested League One fixture list, rotation is certain — but Paterson, who knows every corner of the Pirelli from his Burton days, will demand his fringe players treat this as a cup final rather than a dead rubber.

From a betting perspective, the market prices this as a genuine coin-flip with a home tilt: Burton win 2.45, draw 3.40 and Notts County 2.75 in European odds, with Both Teams To Score at 1.75, Over 2.5 goals at 1.90 and the correct score 2-1 on offer at 9.00, while Matthew Dennis is a tempting 3.60 to score anytime against his old club. The numbers say these teams produce goals when they meet — County have scored ten across the last five head-to-heads — and Burton's Trophy ties this season (1-1 and 0-0 before shootouts) have been tight, low-scoring affairs, which is exactly why we expect this one to open up as County's rotated XI chases the win that secures top spot. Our prediction is a 2-1 home victory: Burton's hunger, the extra edge of Dennis proving a point against his former employers, and Delap's set-piece threat from the back three should be just enough to edge a County side that may lack its usual fluency with several changes. Backing Burton at 2.45 and Dennis anytime at 3.60 looks the value play, with Over 2.5 goals at 1.90 a solid supporting bet for what should be an entertaining Tuesday-night cup tie under the lights in Burton upon Tr