Bodo/Glimt vs Sturm Graz Prediction & Betting Tips (20 August)

Bodø/Glimt welcome Sturm Graz to the Aspmyra Stadion for the first leg of their UEFA Champions League play-off, with the Norwegian side entering the tie in formidable form. Under the guidance of Kjetil Knutsen, Glimt have been a dominant force in the Eliteserien, currently sitting second with 38 points and boasting a goal difference of +27. Their recent 1-1 draw with Tromsø may have cooled momentum slightly, but prior to that, they had won four straight matches, scoring 16 goals in the process. Kasper Høgh and Ulrik Saltnes have been instrumental in attack, combining for 18 goals this season. With home advantage and a 60% win probability, Glimt are expected to dictate proceedings.

Sturm Graz, meanwhile, arrive in Norway with a mixed bag of recent results. Christian Ilzer’s men suffered a 2-1 defeat to SK Rapid in their last outing, and their away form in European competition has been particularly troubling—five consecutive winless trips. Injuries to key players like Axel Kayombo and Daniil Khudyakov further complicate their preparations. However, the Austrian side has shown flashes of quality, notably in their 2-0 win over LASK Linz earlier this month. Their attacking output has been steady, averaging 1.8 goals per game in their last five matches, but defensive lapses have cost them dearly.

Tactically, Bodø/Glimt’s high press and fluid attacking transitions could overwhelm Sturm Graz’s more rigid structure. The Norwegians have a knack for exploiting wide areas, with their fullbacks often joining the attack, creating overloads that Sturm may struggle to contain. Graz will likely rely on counter-attacks and set pieces to threaten, but Glimt’s defensive line—anchored by the experienced Marius Lode—has been resilient at home. The midfield battle, particularly between Glimt’s Patrick Berg and Sturm’s Jon Gorenc Stanković, could be decisive in controlling tempo.

With all factors considered, a 2-1 victory for Bodø/Glimt seems the most plausible outcome. Their attacking depth, home advantage, and superior recent form give them the edge, though Sturm Graz are capable of snatching a goal through individual brilliance or a defensive lapse. Expect Glimt to take a slender lead into the second leg, setting up a tense return fixture in Graz.