Latvia vs Montenegro Prediction & Betting Tips (2 October)

Latvia host Montenegro at the Skonto Stadium in Riga on Friday, 2 October 2026, in Round 3 of the UEFA Nations League 2026/27 Group C2, with kick-off scheduled for 20:00 local time and Bulgarian referee Radoslav Gidzhenov in charge. Top meets bottom in the group: Montenegro have taken maximum points from their opening two fixtures, edging Cyprus 2-1 at home before a dramatic 2-3 comeback win in Yerevan, scoring the winner in the 89th minute through Aleksa Latković. Latvia, meanwhile, are still searching for their first goal and first win of the campaign, having followed a 0-2 defeat in Armenia with a goalless 0-0 home draw against Cyprus — a result that left Paolo Nicolato's side with just one point from two matches and extended their winless Nations League group-stage run to six games.

For the 2026/27 season, Latvia boss Paolo Nicolato has named a 26-man squad featuring several debutants, including QPR left-back Deniss Čirkin, with the experienced spine built around goalkeeper Rihards Matrevics of Dukla Prague, captain and centre-back Antonijs Černomordijs, Luzern defender Andrejs Cigaņiks and Daejeon forward Vladislavs Gutkovskis. Montenegro coach Mirko Vučinić can count on a star-studded Brave Falcons squad: Stefan Savić anchors the defence alongside Igor Vujačić and Risto Radunović, the midfield boasts Lens youngster Andrija Bulatović and Sassuolo's Vasilije Adžić, while captain Stevan Jovetić, Genoa's Milutin Osmajić and in-form Atalanta striker Nikola Krstović lead the line — Krstović arriving in Riga with four goals and one assist in his last five international appearances after his match-winning contributions in the 2-1 victory over Cyprus. Neither side reported new injury concerns ahead of the October window.

History heavily favours the visitors: Latvia have never beaten Montenegro in four previous meetings (two draws, two defeats), the only prior encounter in Riga was won by the Brave Falcons, and each of the last four head-to-head clashes produced fewer than 2.5 goals. The European odds reflect that dominance, with Montenegro priced as clear favourites at around 1.85 to win, the draw at 3.70 and Latvia out at 4.75, while Montenegro to win or draw (double chance X2) is offered at just 1.33 and over 1.5 total goals at 1.40 — although Latvia's organised defensive block, goalkeeper Matrevics' push for a fourth consecutive home clean sheet, and Montenegro's tendency to leave matches late all point toward a tighter contest than the odds suggest.

Our prediction for this UEFA Nations League showdown in Riga is a 0:0 draw. Montenegro may be the form side with maximum points, but their two wins came only via late winners after falling behind, their defence has looked vulnerable, and away trips to a packed Skonto Stadium rarely produce free-flowing football. Latvia have scored in just one of their last four home games and will happily sit deep, frustrate Krstović and Jovetić, and lean on Matrevics' shot-stopping — and with the last four H2H meetings all staying under 2.5 goals, a stalemate that keeps Montenegro top and gives Latvia a second point of the campaign looks the most likely outcome of the 2026/27 Nations League campa