Belgium vs Turkey Prediction & Betting Tips (2 October)

Belgium host Turkey at the Stade Maurice Dufrasne in Liège on Friday, 2 October 2026, in a UEFA Nations League League A Group 1 clash that both sides need to win for very different reasons. Mark van Bommel's Belgium sit second in the group on three points after following an impressive 2-0 away victory over Italy with a narrow 0:1 home defeat to France, while Vincenzo Montella's Turkey are bottom of the section with zero points, having opened their campaign with a 1-0 home loss to France before crumbling to a 1:4 defeat against Italy in Bursa. Historically this fixture has been tight — Belgium have won just three of the eleven previous meetings — but the Red Devils' form at the start of this 2026/27 Nations League campaign suggests they are well placed to move clear of their visitors, who are fighting simply to preserve their League A status.

Belgium's 2026/27 squad blends experience with youth, and van Bommel is expected to field a side close to the following: Lammens in goal, behind a back line of Castagne, Ngoy, Mechele and Seys, with Tielemans and the fitness-doubtful Romeo Lavia anchoring midfield. Kevin De Bruyne should again start in an advanced role, with Dodi Lukebakio set to replace the suspended Diego Moreira out wide and Charles De Ketelaere leading the line. Thibaut Courtois and Jérémy Doku remain notable absentees from this international squad, while goalkeeper Mike Penders faces a late fitness test after suffering a quad injury. Despite those setbacks, Belgium have conceded only once across their opening two Nations League matches and will fancy their chances against a Turkish defence that has already leaked five goals in two group games.

Turkey, meanwhile, welcome back goalkeeper Ugurcan Cakir from suspension for their trip to Liège, and Montella is expected to recall Abdulkerim Bardakci and Ferdi Kadioglu to a probable starting eleven of Cakir; Celik, Bardakci, Kabak; Aydin, Ozcan, Kokcu, Kadioglu; with Arda Guler, Baris Yilmaz and Uzun in attacking positions. The Crescent-Stars showed signs of life in the second half against Italy — where Barış Alper Yılmaz scored and Güler created several further openings — but their last away outing ended in a disappointing 0:1 defeat, and earlier in the summer they were beaten 2-1 by Spain in a 2:1 thriller that Belgium themselves contested at the World Cup. Turkey's last two meetings with Belgium came way back in Euro 2012 qualifying — a 3-2 Turkish home win and a 1-1 draw — and the visitors will hope that history, plus Güler's quality, can spark a response before they face Italy again next week.

The European odds make Belgium clear favourites at 1.48 for the home win, with the draw priced at 4.50 and an away victory for Turkey at 6.25. That market confidence is well founded: Belgium have won nine of their last fifteen matches across all competitions, have kept clean sheets in both Nations League games so far, and possess the attacking depth to punish a Turkish side shipping goals at an alarming rate. Turkey's away record in their last five on the road is respectable (three wins), and their talented front line means a consolation goal is far from impossible — but Belgium's blend of De Bruyne's creativity, De Ketelaere's movement and Lukebakio's directness should prove too much over ninety minutes. Our prediction: Belgium 3-1 Turkey, with the hosts taking control in the second half to keep pace with group leaders Fra