Croatia vs Spain Prediction & Betting Tips (6 October)

Croatia host Spain on Tuesday, 6 October 2026 at Poljud Stadion in Split in a UEFA Nations League League A Group 3 clash that already feels decisive. The reverse fixture in Seville last week ended in a 4-1 win for Spain, Lamine Yamal scoring twice as the world champions opened up a three-point lead at the top of the group. Croatia, however, arrive with confidence after Luka Modrić inspired them to a 1-2 away victory over Czechia on matchday one, and Slaven Bilić's men will see home soil in Split as the perfect stage for revenge.

Spain come into this fixture as the reigning world champions, a title sealed with a flawless 0-2 semi-final win over France in Arlington back in July, followed by Nations League wins over England by 2-3 at Wembley and the emphatic defeat of Croatia in Seville. Luis de la Fuente's 2026/2027 squad blends experience with electrifying youth: Unai Simón in goal, a defence of Carvajal, Le Normand, Laporte and Cucurella, the metronomic Rodri shielding Pedri and Dani Olmo, and a devastating attack led by Ballon d'Or contender Lamine Yamal, Mikel Oyarzabal and Nico Williams.

Croatia's 2026/2027 squad remains built around captain Luka Modrić, whose man-of-the-match display in Prague showed he remains the heartbeat of this team even at 40. Dominik Livaković starts in goal behind Joško Gvardiol and Josip Šutalo, while Mateo Kovačić, Luka Sučić and the Pašalić brothers give Bilić legs and creativity in midfield, with Andrej Kramarić and Bruno Petković competing to lead the line. The key battle will be whether Croatia's experienced midfield can deny Rodri the time that unlocked them so ruthlessly in the 4-1 defeat in Seville, where Spain enjoyed 64% possession and created four big chances.

Looking at the European odds, Spain are clear favourites at 1.85, the draw is priced at 3.60, and a Croatia home win sits at 4.20 — prices that reflect La Roja's 37-game unbeaten run and Croatia's patchy record against top-tier opposition. The home crowd at Poljud will make life uncomfortable, but Spain's depth, form and the Yamal factor are simply overwhelming. Our prediction: Croatia 1-3 Spain, with the visitors' front three again proving too sharp for the Croatian back l