Toulouse vs Troyes Prediction & Betting Tips (25 October)

Toulouse welcome Troyes to the Stadium de Toulouse on Saturday, 24 October 2026, for round eight of the 2026/27 Ligue 1 season, with the hosts sitting 11th on nine points and the visitors rooted in 17th with just four. New Danish coach Jens Berthel Askou has made an instant impact, guiding Toulouse to a four-game unbeaten run (W2, D2) built on late drama — they have scored 11 of their 12 league goals after half-time, with Danish forward Casper Tengstedt already on five goals in Europe's big-five leagues. Troyes, newly promoted and managed by Stéphane Dumont, arrive on a five-match losing streak and are only two defeats away from equalling their club record of seven straight Ligue 1 losses set in 2016.

Toulouse's 2026/27 squad has produced its best scoring start to a top-flight season since 1985/86, with Guillaume Restes in goal behind Mark McKenzie, captain Rasmus Nicolaisen and Christ Tapé, while Cristian Cásseres Jr, Niko Sigur, Aron Dønnum and Thomas Jørgensen feed Tengstedt and Jacen Russell-Rowe in attack. Their latest statement came away to Le Mans in a convincing 0-3 win, preceded by a battling 2-2 draw at Monaco and a thrilling 3-2 home victory over Le Havre. Troyes' summer-rebuilt squad — goalkeeper Patrick Beach signed from Melbourne City, with Adrien Monfray, Junior Diaz, Antoine Mille, Mouhamed Diop and veteran Renaud Ripart — has leaked 16 goals in seven games, and they are without Ismaël Boura, Yvann Titi and Anis Ouzenadji through injury.

The head-to-head heavily favours the hosts: Toulouse have won seven of the last 11 meetings with four draws and no Troyes victory, including a 4-1 triumph in the most recent encounter, and Askou's men have won both league games this season against sides below them in the table. Troyes' last three outings underline their crisis — a 1-3 home defeat to Lens in which they ended a three-game scoring drought, a 0-2 loss to Marseille, and a 2-0 defeat at Angers — and they have conceded two or more goals in each of their last five matches while losing 11 of their previous 13 top-flight away trips.

The European odds reflect Toulouse's dominance, with the home win priced at around 1.60, the draw at 4.20 and an away victory as high as 5.40, implying roughly a 61 percent probability of a home win at the 33,150-capacity Stadium de Toulouse. Given Toulouse's second-half firepower, Troyes' defensive collapse and their winless H2H record, we predict a 3-1 home victory for Toulouse, as Tengstedt and Russell-Rowe exploit a leaky ESTAC back line that has never beaten this opposition in Ligu