How To Increase Odds Using Past Melbourne Cup Results

Punters globally await the Melbourne Cup to try their luck. Read this article to find out how past Melbourne Cup results will increase your chances of placing winning bets.

horse racing

If you’re a fan of horse racing, the first Tuesday of November isn’t just any other day for you. It’s Melbourne Cup day, prominent in the books of horse racing. The Melbourne Cup is also known as ‘the race that stops a nation’ because it does just that. The events unfold at Flemington Racecourse, which is in the Australian city of Victoria.

The Melbourne Cup race attracts millions of fans globally. And one important fan base is that of the punters. If you’re one, you’ll need not just luck but analysis skills as well to increase your chances of having a successful bet outcome. Experienced and successful handicappers have long studied the betting game and have drawn the conclusion that a close analysis of the pattern of wins from previous races is critical in making high-probability predictions.

This article highlights how you can increase your chances of winning a bet in the Melbourne Cup based on past results:

1. Consider the trainer

Racehorse trainers are as crucial in horse racing as the jockeys and horses themselves. They’re there to ensure that the horse they handle is fit to race and oversee everything else it needs for a successful competition. In historical records, some notable horse trainers have been recognized for their outstanding contribution to the success of winning horses. John Tait, otherwise known as the father of Australian turf, is one notable figure. He was the handler of ‘The Barb,’ the winning horse in the first Melbourne Cup in 1866.

Presently, the Melbourne Cup Results list highlights the name Joseph O’Brien, son of legendary trainer Aidan O’Brien who’s carried on his father’s legacy. He was the trainer of Twilight Payment, the leading horse of the 2020 Melbourne Cup contest. He was also the handler of the winning horse in the 2017 Melbourne Cup. Robert Hickmott has also trained two horses that emerged first, within a 10-year period, between 2011 and 2020.

In this sense, you’d want to consider the horse’s trainers before betting on it. A trainer who has produced winning horses in the past stands a high chance of winning this time.

2. Count on the jockey

According to the narrative, on average, a good jockey contributes to about 75% in the race, while the horse fills up the remaining 25%. Selecting a good jockey, therefore, would be a fine move if you want a positive outcome of your bet. You could do this by digging into the past statistics of the race results and identify the best jockeys.

Check out previous winners for the Melbourne Cup with good records, such as Craig Williams, Kerrin McEvoy, and Joseph O’Brien. Jamie Kah will be the only female rider this year and considering she is already one of Australia’s best horseback riders, you may also want to give some thought to her.

3. Weights matter

The Melbourne Cup horse race is a handicap race. In other words, horses carry different weights while racing, with each weight being based on the horse’s past performance. Heavier weights are assigned to better racehorses. This is just to compensate for the capability difference in the horses. The weight range for any particular horse is between 49- 58 kg.

The weight burdens on most winning horses from historical records have been within the 50-55kg bracket. For a 10- year period, between 2011 and 2020, the weight bracket for the winning horses was as follows;
  • 50-52kgs: four wins
  • 53-55kgs: six wins

Therefore, you’d want to bet on a horse carrying a weight within these ranges, rather than going for the extremes of 58 or 49kgs. For more information on this, make sure to check out a comprehensive Melbourne Cup form guide that gives all the relevant horse details, such as weight, barrier, win percentage, average prize money, and place percentage, among others.

4. Look into horse ages

The minimum age for horses in the Melbourne Cup is three years. As relates to horse age and winning frequency from the Melbourne Cup results, the figures below give further insight:
  • Three-year-olds: 23 times
  • Four-year-olds: 46 times
  • Five-year-olds: 44 times
  • Six-year-olds: 33 times
  • Seven-year-olds: 11 times
  • Eight-year-olds: three times

You agree that younger horses stand a higher chance of winning than older ones. Particularly, the young and experienced ones in the four-to-six-year-old age bracket have had more success. Therefore, consider betting on a horse within this age range for higher chances of winning. For more insight on the Melbourne Cup horse profiles.

5. Consider other preceding races

The performance of horses in the several races that take place before the cup week is something you can count on. Some of the notable races you may want to watch out for include:
  • Cox Plate (2,040m): Expected to take place on Saturday, October 23, 2021, at Moonee Valley racecourse.
  • Geelong Cup (2,400 m): Set to take place on October 20, 2021, at Geelong Racecourse. The winner is guaranteed a start at the Melbourne Cup.
  • The Caulfield Cup (2,400m): The Caulfield Cup race went down on Saturday, October 16, 2021, at the Caulfield Racecourse, and Incentivise was the winner.
  • Bart Cummings (2,500m): This took place on October 2, 2021, at Flemington Racecourse, with Grand Promenade coming out first.

It’s no wonder that Incentivise and Grand Promenade are among the favourites in the forthcoming Melbourne Cup.

horse betting

6. Overlook the favourites

A number of horses are selected as favourites every year. This is based on their performance in the previous races leading to the main race. While these have a high winning probability, historical records have oftentimes contradicted this.

Below is a record of the Melbourne Cup results of some favourites over the last ten years:
  • 2020: Surprise Baby, 13th
  • 2019: Finche, 7th
  • 2018: Yucatan, 11th
  • 2017: Marmelo, 9th
  • 2016: Hartnell, 3rd
  • 2015: Fame Game, 13th
  • 2014: Admire Rakti, 22nd
  • 2013: Fiorente, 1st
  • 2012: Dunaden, 14th
  • 2011: Americain, 5th

With the exception of Fiorente in 2013, the rest of the favourites didn’t bag the victory. So, exercise caution before selecting a favourite for the winning spot. This year’s favourites are Incentivise, Spanish Mission, Delphi, and Twilight Payment, but you can only wait and see their performance.


You can use past Melbourne Cup results to increase your odds of winning bets in the above-mentioned ways. Also, it would help if you do some thorough research by reading comprehensive betting guides. After all, this is money you’re dealing with. Also, remember to bet responsibly, as fate may lead you to losing all bets.

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