Italy vs Belgium Prediction & Betting Tips (25 September)

Italy host Belgium on Friday 25 September 2026 at 20:45 CET at the Stadio Olimpico in Rome, in the opening fixture of Group A1 in the 2026/27 UEFA Nations League League A. The Azzurri, drawn from Pot 2, begin a new era after the agony of March, when their World Cup dream ended on penalties against Bosnia and Herzegovina and Gennaro Gattuso resigned, while Belgium arrive as Pot 3 opponents fresh from winning promotion back to League A via the play-offs and reaching the quarter-finals of the 2026 World Cup in North America, with the reverse fixture scheduled for 15 November in Brussels.

Italy head into this tie in rebuilding mode: Sandro Tonali and Moise Kean delivered a 2-0 win over Northern Ireland in the World Cup play-off semi-final in Bergamo, but the subsequent play-off final defeat cost Gattuso his job, and interim coach Silvio Baldini's youthful experimental side responded with narrow 1-0 friendly wins over Luxembourg and 0-1 in Crete, both decided by Pio Esposito. Belgium's summer form was far more explosive, as Romelu Lukaku and Jérémy Doku powered the Red Devils to a 1-5 rout of New Zealand and a 1-4 round-of-16 demolition of hosts USA, before eventual champions Spain edged them 2-1 in the quarter-finals.

For the 2026/27 campaign Italy can count on captain Gianluigi Donnarumma in goal, a back line marshalled by Riccardo Calafiori and Alessandro Bastoni, a midfield engine room of Tonali, Nicolò Barella and Niccolò Pisilli, and an attack featuring Moise Kean, Mateo Retegui, Pio Esposito and Giacomo Raspadori. Belgium's golden generation remains dangerous despite its age, with Thibaut Courtois in goal, Timothy Castagne and Wout Faes in defence, Youri Tielemans and Amadou Onana shielding the back four, and Kevin De Bruyne supplying Lukaku, Doku, Charles De Ketelaere and Leandro Trossard.

In the European 1X2 market, Italy are slight favourites at around 2.15, the draw is priced at approximately 3.30, and an away win for Belgium pays roughly 3.50, with all odds subject to change. Given the Azzurri's new-found momentum, the energy of their young squad and a raucous Roman crowd at the Olimpico, home advantage should just tip a tight, high-quality contest in which Belgium's experienced attackers keep things dangerous until the final whistle. Our prediction: Italy 2 : 1 Belg