Sudan vs Ethiopia Prediction & Betting Tips (25 September)

Sudan and Ethiopia renew their long-standing rivalry on Friday, September 25, 2026, when the two sides meet at Juba Stadium in the opening round of the 2027 Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying campaign. The match marks Sudan's first competitive fixture on home soil since their appearance at the AFCON 2025 finals earlier this year, where Kwesi Appiah's men defied expectations to reach the Round of 16. Ethiopia, meanwhile, arrive in Juba full of confidence after cruising through the preliminary round in March, setting up what promises to be a tightly contested East African derby to kick off Group F of the road to AFCON 2027.

Sudan's recent tournament form has been a story of resilient defence mixed with attacking struggles. The Falcons of Jediane opened their AFCON 2025 group campaign with a narrow 1-0 victory over Equatorial Guinea on December 28, 2025, before falling 0-2 to Burkina Faso on December 31, 2025 — a result that left their knockout hopes hanging by a thread. They responded admirably, booking a last-16 date with Senegal, where an early strike from Aamir Abdallah briefly put them ahead before the tournament favourites roared back to win 3-1, ending Sudan's fairy-tale run. For the 2026/2027 season, Appiah can again count on the spine of that side: goalkeeper Ali Abdullah Abu, defenders Mustafa Karshoum, Mohamed Hakeem and Altayeb Abdalla, midfield engine Salaheldin Adil and the creative Al-Gozoli Nooh, with Yasir Mozamil, Mohamed Abdel Rahman and Aamir Abdallah leading the line.

Ethiopia, coached by Mesay Teferi and captained by the experienced Aschalew Tamene, had to come through a two-legged preliminary tie to reach this stage — and did so in emphatic fashion. The Walia Ibex produced a professional 3-0 away win over São Tomé and Príncipe on March 27, 2026, before sealing a 4-0 aggregate triumph with a 1-0 home victory at Dire Dawa Stadium on March 31, 2026. That momentum has carried into their 2026/2027 squad build-up, where forwards Abubeker Nassir and Amanuel Gebremichael, wingers Surafel Dagnachew and Biniam Genet, and goalkeeper Fasil Gebremichael form the core of a young Ethiopian side looking to return to the AFCON finals for the first time since 2021.

Historically this fixture has been low-scoring — of the twelve previous meetings between Sudan and Ethiopia, six have ended level, including the most recent 1-0 Sudan victory at the 2024 African Nations Championship. The European odds reflect that expectation of a tight contest, with Sudan quoted around 1.80 to win, the draw at approximately 3.30 and Ethiopia priced near 4.75, while the under 2.5 goals market sits as short as 1.50. Given Sudan's home advantage in Juba, their superior defensive organisation from the AFCON finals and Ethiopia's inexperience at this level, we expect a cagey, single-goal affair. Our prediction: Sudan 1-0 Ethiopia