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Sites that predict football matches are fun. Whether it’s an exciting win or a crushing defeat, with the help of accurate soccer predictions it will always help
- selection of sports & bet type
- why the past is as important as the future
- accurate predictions
- compare correct predictions with the probabilities
- set your goal, measure success, and adapt
Selection of Sports & Bet typeOne of the most common mistakes people make when it comes to football predictions is trying to predict whatever might happen; the outcome of the match, whether both teams will score and the number of corners or cards awarded are just a few examples of popular betting markets.
Instead of trying to predict everything that might happen in a soccer game (some people will bet on who will score, who will be booked, and how many shots a particular player has), focusing on one aspect of the game will help get the ball rolling to get better results. .
A bookmaker will have many resources to help them manage the odds in a given market, so while trying to compete with them in all areas will be a waste of time, targeting a specific market will in part help level the playing field. Game.
In practice, the more granular you are, the more you choose what to bet on. The first step should be which sport prediction, then the league (maybe even an individual team) and then the market. The more people (bettors) there are competing in the market you choose, the more difficult it will be as more bets will provide the bookmaker with more information to fine tune their odds. Choosing a niche market will be advantageous, however, you should still be able to access information that will help inform your forecasts.
Why the past is as important as the futureBy betting, you are trying to predict the outcome of an event that will take place in the future, and the past provides the best indicator for this. While many bettors like to think of themselves as experts in their own right, there is no substitute for the benefits of using data when trying to make accurate football predictions.
Data is imperative when it comes to soccer predictions, this will then help build a betting model that can be used to test your predictions and see if they are making a profit.
Most bettors will use things like form, head-to-head results, and the team record versus the spread. Other forms of master data mean we can calculate averages for other betting market related outputs, but there is plenty of more detailed data available online to take this approach to the next level.
Expected Goals (xG) is a metric that is now commonly used in soccer analysis and more recently soccer betting. Unlike judging a result on goals scored (which can be heavily influenced by luck), xG is a measure of odds quality that paints a clearer picture of what happened. While this is a retrospective measure, it can also be predictive, as a team is expected to regress to the level of performance indicated by its xG numbers.
You can also create your own metrics from past performance data, with a little math, to calculate the probability of an outcome. Poisson Distribution is one example, where the average number of goals scored and conceded by two teams per game can be used against the league average to calculate the most likely score line in an upcoming game.
Accurate PredictionsWith the help of Expert tipsters and mathematical predictions , we can show the follow variables that make them accurate predictions hence sure tips.
- Home Ground Advantage : According to the statistics, the team with home ground advantage perform much better. According to a Betting Expert website, a club which plays at home can get +1 goal advantage
- Last 5 Games: The last 5 games are very important since it contains the latest stats for the team performance. Either there is an injury, latest substitutes or other Coaching problems. It is useless to check the stats for the whole season since after 10 games the team performance varies a lot.
- H2H Stats: This variable can change the correct score predictions. Each team performs differently with other teams for example a derby match can have different results from other match games.
- Kelly Criterion: This prediction method is the last piece of the puzzle in our algorithm. This is an indication of many variables together which give a simple rating for each team. This is the main outcome for a fulltime 1x2 prediction
Compare correct predictions with the probabilitiesIt's important to remember that your soccer predictions don't have to be accurate in order to make a consistent profit from betting - they just need to be more accurate than the bookie and the rest of the market. You also need to be right more often than you are wrong (loss is part of the winning process when betting).
Once you have accurate soccer predictions, they need to be converted to probability and compared to the odds offered by the bookmaker. When you have inefficiencies (your estimated likelihood of something happening is higher than the bookmaker thinks) it is called an "advantage" - then you can bet amounts relative to your advantage.
Measuring your return on investment through betting is a clear indicator of your success. However, this gives no indication of the amount of skill involved. Pinnacle's closing line (the most efficient on the market) is the most accurate reflection of what could happen before an event starts, so analyzing your bets through a comparison of closing odds can put highlight how often you find value. If the bets you place are of value, over time the profit will follow.
Set your goal, measure success, and adaptThe difficulty of making football predictions should not be underestimated. There are steps that can be taken to inform these forecasts and make them more accurate, but making a consistent profit from them is quite another task. Before you begin, you need a clear goal of what you want to try to predict and how you intend to predict it.
Data is imperative when it comes to soccer predictions, this will then help build a betting model that can be used to test your predictions and see if they are making a profit. Whether or not you make a profit from using your model, it must be constantly refined, maintained and tested to ensure long term success.
Our Top TipsTo make consistent long-term profits from sports betting, there are a few principles every bettor should take to heart.
- Set aside a betting bank - Your betting bank or fund should not be money you need to pay the rent or buy next week’s groceries with. You need to set aside a sum of money – you can start with as little as £10 or £20 – which you can afford to lose.
- Never bet more than you would feel comfortable losing - If a bet leaves you feeling uncomfortable, or you cannot stop thinking about it, then you are emotionally involved. It is better to bet mechanically, following a strategy, than with emotion.
- Never chase losses - Losses are part of betting. Nobody wins every time. If you have a bad day, do not keep betting just to recover the loss. There will always be another match or race, and another opportunity. There's always tomorrow, or next week. It is long term results that count.
- Keep betting system stakes low - If you are following a betting system, set your stakes low enough that you can absorb losses. Systems will inevitably involve a run of losing bets. You need to have faith in the system, and keep going until the winners arrive.
- Be wary of accumulator bets - Accumulator bets They are pushed hard by bookmakers because they are rarely profitable. They are hard to win, and the odds get more favourable for the bookmaker with every extra selection that you add.
- Don’t bet on every event - Friendly football matches, novice horse races… the result is very hard to predict. Best to avoid betting on them. Choose the events you feel confident about.
- Look for value in your bets – Is it worth betting on the favourite in a horse race? Statistically, the favourite wins only one out of three races. Why not bet on the horse placing, instead?
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