Portugal vs Norway Prediction & Betting Tips (4 October)

Portugal host Norway on Sunday 4 October 2026 at 20:45 CET in Matchday 4 of the 2026/27 UEFA Nations League Group A4, in what promises to be a fascinating rematch just one week after the two sides met in Oslo. The Seleção, defending Nations League champions and now led by new head coach Jorge Jesus, made it two wins from two by edging 1-2 in Norway on 27 September, thanks to goals from João Félix and Gonçalo Ramos, despite leaving Cristiano Ronaldo on the bench for the entire match. Portugal sit top of Group A4 with a perfect six points, while Norway, despite the defeat, remain firmly in the hunt for the quarter-finals and will arrive in Portugal desperate for revenge and determined to close the gap at the summit.

Both teams come into this clash in strong scoring form. Portugal opened their campaign with a hard-fought 1-0 home win over Wales on 24 September, a match in which Ronaldo started and captained the side before being withdrawn in the second half. Norway, meanwhile, produced a thrilling attacking display to beat Denmark 3-2 on the same matchday, with Erling Haaland once again leading the line. The Scandinavians have every reason to believe they can trouble Portugal: they reached their first-ever World Cup quarter-final in the summer, stunning Brazil 2-1 in the Round of 16 in East Rutherford, while Portugal's own World Cup ended in heartbreak with a 0-1 last-16 defeat to Spain in Dallas.

Looking at the squads for the 2026/27 season, Portugal boast remarkable depth: Diogo Costa in goal, a defence marshalled by Rúben Dias with Nuno Mendes and Renato Veiga, a midfield of Vitinha and Bernardo Silva, and an attack featuring João Félix, Rafael Leão and in-form AC Milan striker Gonçalo Ramos, who has staked his claim to start ahead of the 41-year-old Ronaldo, who remains 21 goals short of the mythical 1,000-career-goal mark. Bruno Fernandes is a doubt after missing the Oslo trip through injury. Norway's hopes rest on captain and record-chaser Erling Haaland, whose 65 international goals in just 57 caps include a record 22 in the Nations League, supported by Martin Ødegaard, Alexander Sørloth, Antonio Nusa and goalkeeper Ørjan Nyland, under coach Ståle Solbakken.

In the European odds markets, Portugal are clear favourites at around 1.55 for the home win, with the draw priced at approximately 4.20 and a Norway victory at roughly 5.50 — figures that reflect the hosts' perfect start and home advantage, but perhaps underestimate a Norwegian side that has scored in every competitive match it has played in 2026. Given Portugal's firepower, Norway's defensive frailties, and Haaland's almost guaranteed contribution at the other end, we expect an entertaining, high-scoring contest. Our prediction: Portugal 3-1 Norway, a result that would all but seal top spot in Group A4 for Jorge Jesus'