Greece vs Germany Prediction & Betting Tips (4 October)

Greece host Germany at the Toumba Stadium in Thessaloniki on October 4, 2026, in a blockbuster UEFA Nations League League A Group 2 rematch that carries serious top-of-the-table weight. Ivan Jovanović's side pulled off one of the shocks of the 2026/27 campaign last Sunday, stunning Jürgen Klopp's Germany with a famous 1-0 victory at Augsburg's WWK Arena — a result you can relive in our 0-1 match prediction. Greece backed that up with a creditable draw against the Netherlands on Matchday 3, while Germany responded to the Augsburg defeat by beating Serbia 2-0, meaning the Ethniki still hold the early edge in the group.

Form heading into this clash paints a fascinating picture. Greece have been resilient all autumn: after edging Serbia 2-1 in Belgrade thanks to a 95th-minute winner from Anastasios Douvikas — see our 1-2 prediction — they showed maturity beyond their years. Germany, meanwhile, remain a work in progress under Klopp, who began his reign with a 1-1 draw against the Netherlands in Amsterdam where Cody Gakpo struck a 92nd-minute equaliser, as covered in our 1-1 prediction. Die Mannschaft dominated possession (76%) and racked up 24 shots in the reverse fixture yet could not find a way past Konstantinos Tzolakis, a warning that this young Greek side punishes profligacy.

Both coaches have named their 2026/2027 season squads with attacking intent. Germany remain without the injured Jamal Musiala and Kai Havertz, but welcome back Florian Wirtz and Jonathan Burkardt, with Joshua Kimmich, Nico Schlotterbeck and Marc-André ter Stegen expected to anchor the spine; Younes Ebnoutalib is pushing for a start up front after scoring against Serbia. Greece are boosted by the in-form Vangelis Pavlidis (14 goals for Benfica this season), Charalampos Kostoulas, who has netted in three straight for Brighton, and Arsenal wideman Christos Tzolis, though they are still without the ACL-injured Giannis Konstantelias. Kostas Tsimikas and Kostas Mavropanos will lead the defensive effort in front of Tzolakis, while Borussia Dortmund teenager Konstantinos Karetsas provides the creative spark.

Our prediction: Germany win this rematch and claim top spot in Group 2. Although Greece's 4-4-2 low block frustrated Klopp's gegenpressing machine in Augsburg, Die Mannschaft's superior depth and desperation to avenge their first-ever defeat to the Ethniki should tell over 90 minutes at a rocking Toumba. European odds reflect that: a home win for Greece is priced around 6.50, the draw near 4.20, and a Germany victory a strong favourite at approximately 1.45. We forecast a 1-3 away triumph for Germany, with the correct score available at attractive European odds of roughly 11.00 — Pavlidis or Kostoulas can grab a consolation for the hosts, but Wirtz, Ebnoutalib and company should prove too clinical this t